Vladan Lausevic
4 min readJun 17, 2023

The first Bitcoin bet in history. How did it result?

In 2011, Roger Ver made a video on Youtube called Bitcoin: $10,000 Bet that they will outperform Gold and Silver by 100X !!!. As the CEO of Memorydealers.com, he wrote in the video description the following text:

Recently I have noticed a lot of videos on youtube where people are saying that Bitcoins are a scam, a Ponzi scheme, or otherwise a bad idea.

I disagree, so I would like to invite those people to put their money where their mouth is. I’m willing to bet $10,000 USD or equivalent in Bitcoins, that over the next 2 years, Bitcoins will not only outperform the stock market, Gold, Silver, and the US dollar, but Bitcoins will do it by more than 100 times.

This means that I am willing to bet that if Silver is up by %100 over the next two years, I think Bitcoin will be up by more than %10,000. We can place our bet publicly on http://longbets.org/611/ and the money will be donated to the charity of the winner’s choice.

If you really think that bitcoins are such a bad idea, please contact me so we can make our bet public. I’m confident that bitcoins will change the world, and I’m excited to be a part of that.

Please leave your comments or suggestions in the comments below. Today is August 4th, 2011 and bitcoins are about $10.

Vers video is among the “Bitcoin early ones” and the first recorded video about bets in Bitcoin. The video also informs us how humans can think about betting, money and markets. Also, it shows how the price of Bitcoin at the time was only 10 USD per BTC.

Roger Ver has a controversial history due to his political statements about the US government often being seen as extreme and unobjective. As a person with a libertarian and anarcho-capitalist political background, he started early with the usage of Bitcoin. Thereby, he became an early Bitcoin investor and promoter. He got the nickname “Bitcoin Jesus” and was the CEO of Bitcoin.com during 2015–2019. For Roger, Bitcoin is seen as something revolutionary, and one of his earliest statements was that “one of the most important inventions in the history of humankind.”

When it comes to the bet itself, it is interesting to analyze what happened afterward. In my writing, I got assistance via Chat GPT by asking about Bitcoin’s performance concerning the stock market, Gold, Silver, and the US dollar. Here are the following answers:

Also, the ChatGPT wrote that:

During the period from 2011 to 2013, Bitcoin experienced significant price volatility and notable increases in value. Let’s compare Bitcoin’s performance against gold during that time:

  1. 2011: In the early part of the year, both Bitcoin and gold saw substantial price increases. However, Bitcoin’s rise was particularly noteworthy, with its price surging from around $0.30 in January to a peak of nearly $31 in June, representing an increase of over 10,000%. In comparison, gold had a relatively stable performance during this period, with prices fluctuating within a range of $1,300 to $1,900 per ounce.
  2. 2012: Bitcoin’s performance in 2012 was characterized by both highs and lows. The price started the year at around $5 and reached a peak of around $13 in August before experiencing a downward trend. Gold, on the other hand, had a relatively stable performance during this period, with prices ranging between $1,500 and $1,800 per ounce.
  3. 2013: This year marked a significant increase in both Bitcoin’s and gold’s prices. Bitcoin, in particular, had a remarkable bull run, starting the year at around $13 and reaching an all-time high of over $1,100 in December. This represented an increase of more than 8,000% in a single year. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a decline in value during the first half of the year, but later recovered and closed the year at around $1,200 per ounce.

Overall, during the period from 2011 to 2013, Bitcoin significantly outperformed gold in terms of price appreciation. Bitcoin experienced exponential growth, while gold’s price remained relatively stable with modest fluctuations. It’s important to note, however, that Bitcoin’s volatility during this time was considerably higher, with the potential for significant price swings in short periods.

The ChatGPT provides a similar answer for silver if you search for the same information. Also, other debates, studies and analyses have focused on the same factors mentioned in Vers bet from 2011.

Thanks for reading. You can support and reward my writing via:

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Vladan Lausevic

I am active as a social and policy entrepreneur. SEEDS ambassador. Motto: I have no identity, I have only identities.